Final stretch: Analysis of Clarisse's final miles by Alan Roberts

As the second wave of boats approach Les Sables, it is clear the race is not over yet. With ferocious and powerfully weather systems rolling fast across the Atlantic towards France we have already seen the first to feel the brunt and risks, Sam Goodchild suffers mainsail damage that cost him some places.

The high pressure, flat water dreamy conditions we saw are the arrival of the first 3 boats have gone and now there is a rapid fire of lows and fronts.

We can see from the communications of Jeremie Beyou that these conditions are to be respected, or even feared.

There is a defiant mode change required for this final sector of the race course. A cautious approach, low risk requiring attention to detail on every level just to get the boat to the finish line. It will be easy to be complacent and not realize they are entering a new playground with more violent weather systems, fishing boats, cargo vessels and the continental plate that stirs up the waters and increases wildlife at the surface.

Each sailor will have different ambitions and will be willing to take different risks, maybe things will be going through their heads in the decision-making process, getting to the finish line, gaining places or not losing them, damage to the boat, resale value of the boat, risk to life, the conditions to approach the coast in Les Sables... etcetera...

For Clarisse, currently at the level of The Canaries, she is in the middle of a small packet of boats with Benjamin and Sam Davies. Although still racing and fighting for her place, today the big question is more about security and risks. Her real race is against a low-pressure system that is coming through on the evening of the 26th to the 27th January. This low pressure is one of a chain of lows that are hitting the coast in rapid fire. This low is gaining in strength as it crosses the Atlantic and will pass over Ireland. It will be windy, but the boats have already delt with big winds, the key factors are the large waves behind the front that could be up to 8m high with a period of 13/ 14 seconds. The seas are not long and rolling and with violent wind shifts behind the front the wind and the waves will not be aligned making it challenging for the boats to sail and keep the boat in one piece. The risks are also amplified by the fact the boats will be approaching the land, there is no escape from being blown towards the rocks in the worst case.

For Clarisse if she can arrive before the large seas and big wind it will be preferable, not just for the conditions in the Bay of Biscay but also for access to the Port of Les Sables d’Olonne, arrive Sunday night there are 3.5m waves, arrive Monday morning and the sea will have already picked up to 6m.  At any time, the Skippers can decide to slow down to preserve the boat and reduce the risk of damage, this is a seaman’s decision and theirs alone to take. They are being followed by the Race Directors who could alert them to dangerous conditions and advise them if they feel a route alteration is wise.

The Vendee Globe remains a challenging race and adventure that starts years in advance and is only over once the boat is back on the pontoon.